It’s too early for either Josh or I to start gloating about our predictions (mine here; Josh’s and mine here), but here are some general observations.

I-1033 (Tim Eyman’s tax-slashing measure): Voters are sick of Tim Eyman, and scared (justifiably) of what might happen if another of his tax-cutting measures passes. Commercials telling voters that things would “only get worse” under Eyman’s initiative were effective in a down economy, and the comparisons to Colorado gave voters something tangible to think about.

(Josh here: Two things about Eyman’s initiative. 1) This is good news for Democrats in a national context. The teabagger, anti-government  backlash that flared up this summer against President Obama gave 1033 an early edge in polling, but last night’s rebuke—55-45 —could indicate that the conservative revolution was overblown … Hello, NY-23.  2) This is the first time one of Eyman’s anti-tax initiatives has failed at the polls. )

Referendum 71 (upholding gay domestic partner rights): R-71 was too close to call as of last night statewide, due in part to surprisingly lackluster pro-71 turnout in Seattle. Fully 35 percent of Seattle voters voted against R-71, which seems high to me (supporters were hoping it would top 75 percent in the state’s biggest—and gayest—city). Part of that surprisingly high “no” vote may have been the fact that, when faced with a referendum or initiative they don’t understand, voters tend to simply vote against it; part of it, too, may have been confusion over whether a “yes” or a “no” vote favored gay rights.

King County Executive: Although the last polling had Dow Constantine winning, no one predicted he would end the night so far ahead of his opponent Susan Hutchison (57 to 43 percent). I credit Constantine’s big victory (Hutchison, incidentally, has not conceded defeat) to weird antics by Hutchison late in the election, such as pushing a non-story about a “sexual harassment” charge that turned out to be wildly overblown.  And, most important, to the fact that voters in King County simply didn’t want to support a Republican. Constantine, who raised more money than Hutchison to get his message out, and had more independent expenditures on his side, successfully branded Hutchison with the dreaded Republican tag, despite Hutchison’s attempt to shrug off the claim.

Additionally, it may be that voters felt more comfortable in uncertain economic times with an experienced elected official they perceived as the incumbent; although Constantine took pains in the latter days of the campaign to make the point that “I am not the incumbent” county executive, being tagged as such may have, paradoxically, helped him in the  end.

Port Commission Position 3: No big shocker here. David Doud’s nasty negative campaign against Rob Holland (false charges of “mismanaging public money,” publishing Holland’s home address on a campaign mailer) turned voters off and pushed them into Holland’s arms. Holland’s omnipresence at campaign events since last spring didn’t hurt either.

(Josh here: One thing that’s noteworthy about Holland’s win is this: He was part of a union-backed slate known as “Port Reform.” The other candidate on the slate, former state legislator Max Vekich, lost. Tom Albro, the establishment candidate with ties to big port interests, won, 57-43, almost the exact flip of Holland’s 55-44 win. Hmmm?)

Mayor: It’s a tossup, but I think Mike McGinn will win, thanks to a superior ground game and a massive (and last-minute) get-out-the-vote effort. See below.

City attorney: The margin on this race surprised me (and could still narrow, with tens of thousands of votes outstanding), but I’m not surprised Holmes won. Three terms is a big ask time for any incumbent (see: Greg Nickels), and people were fed up with Carr’s focus on cracking down on nightlife and petty crime at the expense of real problems in the city. Although some theorized that Carr would get a bump from pro-law-and-order sentiment in the wake of last week’s police shooting, that didn’t pan out for him or for Nick Licata opponent Jessie Israel, who was also losing her race by a wide margin.

City Council incumbents: Incumbency is powerful, especially when people don’t think you’re doing a bad job (or when they think the city’s moving in the wrong direction, but blame someone else). Richard Conlin had more than 75 percent of the vote last night, and Licata had 58 percent—good margins, especially for Licata, who had a strong opponent in Israel.

City Council Position 4: Sally Bagshaw won 51 percent in the primary to David Bloom’s 18 percent. No big surprise, then, that Bagshaw picked up another 16 percent, ending the night with 69 percent to Bloom’s 31.

City Council Position 8: People are sick of Robert Rosencrantz. His hit ads, which claimed (erroneously) that his opponent Mike O’Brien wanted “tolls on every city street” were a turnoff. And he’s simply not the most appealing candidate. No wonder that he lost his third bid for council.